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A Flawed Assumption in Trump's Peace Plan

In this episode Dr. Mike examines a critical misunderstanding in the Trump Administration’s peace proposals for the Russia-Ukraine war.

Drawing on decades of firsthand experience across Russia, Ukraine, and the former Soviet Union, he challenges the widely held belief that Russian‑speaking Ukrainians naturally prefer Russian rule.

This belief reveals itself in positions taken by American peace negotiators. It's particularly evident in proposals for a final settlement that places the entire Russian-speaking portion of Ukraine under Russian control — even the portions currently held by the Ukrainian army.

Dr. Mike explains that language and loyalty are not the same. From his experience, this is clearly the case in Donbas, where the most intense fighting has occurred. During his extensive work there, he found Russian-speaking residents to be largely distrustful of Moscow. As soon as war broke out, millions of them fled Donbas, not just to escape the fighting, but to avoid living under Russian rule.

Many who remained have become insurgents, harassing Russian troops continuously and providing the Ukrainian armed forces with vital intelligence.

If a final peace settlement should indeed give Russia an unbridled hand in Donbas and nearby territory, Dr. Mike believes that this insurgency will become more determined and entrenched. A peace settlement may end open warfare, but it won't end the fighting.

He also anticipates that Russia will counter the insurgents with harsh measures, with the Russian propaganda machine shouting that Ukraine is formenting the insurgency. Moscow would then use this charge as justification for selective strikes on Ukrainian military positions and installations.

Should that occur, the threat of renewed warfare would be a contant menace to peace in the region.

There is a lesson in this for all leaders: flawed assumptions — especially those based on oversimplified narratives — can undo the fruit of even the most well-intentioned, well-orchestrated negotiations. Effective leadership never heistates to question the veracity of what "everyone knows."